Orlando Magic
2021-22What were the Orlando Magic in 2021-22, and what needed front-office attention?
ORL 2021-22: the clearest roster problems were Defensive event creation, Shooting and spacing. The strongest covered areas were Interior finishing, Passing connectivity. The main rotation-player dependency cases were Wendell Carter Jr., Mo Bamba, Chuma Okeke, Gary Harris, Robin Lopez. Structural basketball need, injuries, replacement lineups, and financial constraints are reported separately.
What can be trusted
Supported strengths — production, who carries it, and what money is already committed.Full reading
ORL 2021-22 Interior finishing: this was a team strength; production ranked at the 77.3 league percentile. Franz Wagner supplied 19.6% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences created a shortage in 8 of the final 10 covered games. Function-level salary allocation was incomplete and is withheld.
Full reading
ORL 2021-22 Passing connectivity: this was a team strength; production ranked at the 77.3 league percentile. Franz Wagner supplied 18.5% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences created a shortage in 8 of the final 10 covered games. Function-level salary allocation was incomplete and is withheld.
What needs attention
The clearest roster problems the evidence supports.Full reading
ORL 2021-22 Defensive event creation: this was one of the team's clearest roster problems; production ranked at the 13.6 league percentile. Chuma Okeke supplied 40.9% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences made the problem worse in 10 of the final 10 covered games. Function-level salary allocation was incomplete and is withheld.
Full reading
ORL 2021-22 Shooting and spacing: this was one of the team's clearest roster problems; production ranked at the 13.6 league percentile. Gary Harris supplied 27.7% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences made the problem worse in 4 of the final 10 covered games. Function-level salary allocation was incomplete and is withheld.
Every covered basketball function (11)
| Function | Reading | League percentile | Largest contributor | Recent availability | Salary commitment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creation | SupportedMiddle of the league | 73rd percentile | Franz Wagner · 21.1% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Defensive event creation | SupportedCritical team problem | 14th percentile | Chuma Okeke · 40.9% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Interior finishing | SupportedTeam strength | 77th percentile | Franz Wagner · 19.6% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Passing connectivity | SupportedTeam strength | 77th percentile | Franz Wagner · 18.5% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Point-of-attack defense proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Franz Wagner | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Rebounding | SupportedMiddle of the league | 50th percentile | Wendell Carter Jr. · 24.3% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Rim pressure | SupportedMiddle of the league | 32nd percentile | Wendell Carter Jr. · 25.8% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Rim protection | SupportedMiddle of the league | 68th percentile | Mo Bamba · 32.1% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Screening | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Wendell Carter Jr. | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Shooting and spacing | SupportedCritical team problem | 14th percentile | Gary Harris · 27.7% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Switch coverage proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Wendell Carter Jr. | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
Who the team depends on
What disappears when a player is removed — and whether an observed replacement five exists.
ORL was highly dependent on Wendell Carter Jr.. Removing him cost about 26.1% of rim protection production, and lineups with him performed 6.5 points per 100 possessions better than lineups without him. The best supported replacement group was [Mo Bamba, Chuma Okeke, Cole Anthony, R.J. Hampton, Franz Wagner] over 167 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Mo Bamba · Chuma Okeke · Cole Anthony · R.J. Hampton · Franz Wagner
shrunk net -2.6 over 167 possessions — small sample
on floor 3,434 possessions · off floor 3,913 possessions
ORL did not have strong functional backup for Mo Bamba in rim protection; removing him cost about 32.1% of the team's production in that area. The next observed option was Wendell Carter Jr..
Replacement evidence
Gary Harris · Wendell Carter Jr. · Chuma Okeke · Cole Anthony · Franz Wagner
shrunk net -1.564 over 151 possessions — small sample
on floor 3,379 possessions · off floor 3,945 possessions
ORL did not have strong functional backup for Chuma Okeke in event creation; removing him cost about 40.9% of the team's production in that area. The next observed option was Jalen Suggs.
Replacement evidence
Gary Harris · Mo Bamba · Wendell Carter Jr. · Cole Anthony · Franz Wagner
shrunk net 1.741 over 304 possessions
on floor 3,275 possessions · off floor 4,067 possessions
ORL lineups performed 3.6 points per 100 possessions better with Gary Harris than without him. The best supported alternative was [Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs] over 810 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Mo Bamba · Wendell Carter Jr. · Cole Anthony · Franz Wagner · Jalen Suggs
shrunk net -0.982 over 810 possessions
on floor 3,191 possessions · off floor 4,156 possessions
ORL lineups performed 3.3 points per 100 possessions better with Robin Lopez than without him. The best supported alternative was [Gary Harris, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner] over 304 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Gary Harris · Mo Bamba · Wendell Carter Jr. · Cole Anthony · Franz Wagner
shrunk net 1.741 over 304 possessions
on floor 1,140 possessions · off floor 6,207 possessions
Function loss, lineup performance, and replacement-lineup evidence remain separate; none is causal player value.
What injuries change
Recent absences and the basketball needs they created or worsened.Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 10 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Jalen Suggs
Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 10 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Wendell Carter Jr.
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 8 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Franz Wagner
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 8 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Franz Wagner
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 8 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Franz Wagner
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 8 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Wendell Carter Jr.
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 8 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Wendell Carter Jr.
Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 4 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Gary Harris
Where money is tied up
Cap position and salary allocation — shown beside the basketball picture, never blended into it.Most salary is mapped to passing connectivity; the highest-need area is shooting and spacing. Salary-to-function mapping covers 74% of charges.
Exact figures
Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence.
What the evidence cannot answer
Deliberate abstentions — where the database refuses a conclusion rather than guessing.- Point-of-attack defense proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
- Screening: Basketball conclusion withheld
- Switch coverage proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
Exact transaction legality: Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence
Team-season situation report. Structural basketball quality, recent availability, player dependence, replacement lineups, and financial position remain separate. No acquisition recommendation, transaction grade, coaching grade, outcome claim, or causal value is inferred.