Miami Heat
2024-25What were the Miami Heat in 2024-25, and what needed front-office attention?
MIA 2024-25: the clearest roster problems were Rim protection, Interior finishing, Passing connectivity. No supported strength was identified. The main rotation-player dependency cases were Alec Burks, Pelle Larsson. Structural basketball need, injuries, replacement lineups, and financial constraints are reported separately.
What can be trusted
Supported strengths — production, who carries it, and what money is already committed.No supported team strengths for this season — team picture available; function-level salary mapping incomplete.
What needs attention
The clearest roster problems the evidence supports.Full reading
MIA 2024-25 Rim protection: this was one of the team's clearest roster problems; production ranked at the 4.2 league percentile. Kel'el Ware supplied 30.9% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences made the problem worse in 3 of the final 10 covered games. Function-level salary allocation was incomplete and is withheld.
Full reading
MIA 2024-25 Interior finishing: this was one of the team's clearest roster problems; production ranked at the 25.0 league percentile. Bam Adebayo supplied 25.8% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences made the problem worse in 3 of the final 10 covered games. Function-level salary allocation was incomplete and is withheld.
Full reading
MIA 2024-25 Passing connectivity: this was one of the team's clearest roster problems; production ranked at the 25.0 league percentile. Tyler Herro supplied 27.4% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences made the problem worse in 3 of the final 10 covered games. Function-level salary allocation was incomplete and is withheld.
Every covered basketball function (11)
| Function | Reading | League percentile | Largest contributor | Recent availability | Salary commitment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creation | SupportedStructural team problem | 13th percentile | Tyler Herro · 31.3% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Defensive event creation | SupportedMiddle of the league | 33rd percentile | Bam Adebayo · 29.4% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Interior finishing | SupportedCritical team problem | 25th percentile | Bam Adebayo · 25.8% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Passing connectivity | SupportedCritical team problem | 25th percentile | Tyler Herro · 27.4% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Point-of-attack defense proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Nikola Jovic | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Rebounding | SupportedMiddle-tier area with one-player risk | 67th percentile | Bam Adebayo · 44.5% | No repeated availability problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Rim pressure | SupportedStructural team problem | 21st percentile | Tyler Herro · 30.1% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Rim protection | SupportedCritical team problem | 4th percentile | Kel'el Ware · 30.9% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Screening | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Kel'el Ware | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Shooting and spacing | SupportedMiddle of the league | 54th percentile | Tyler Herro · 29.2% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Switch coverage proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Nikola Jovic | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
Who the team depends on
What disappears when a player is removed — and whether an observed replacement five exists.
MIA lineups performed 6.4 points per 100 possessions better with Alec Burks than without him. The best supported alternative was [Jimmy Butler III, Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Tyler Herro] over 358 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Jimmy Butler III · Bam Adebayo · Duncan Robinson · Haywood Highsmith · Tyler Herro
shrunk net 3.161 over 358 possessions
on floor 1,628 possessions · off floor 6,069 possessions
MIA lineups performed 3.5 points per 100 possessions better with Pelle Larsson than without him. The best supported alternative was [Alec Burks, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware] over 156 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Alec Burks · Andrew Wiggins · Bam Adebayo · Tyler Herro · Kel'el Ware
shrunk net 5.853 over 156 possessions — small sample
on floor 1,487 possessions · off floor 6,210 possessions
Function loss, lineup performance, and replacement-lineup evidence remain separate; none is causal player value.
What injuries change
Recent absences and the basketball needs they created or worsened.Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 3 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Tyler Herro
Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 3 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Bam Adebayo
Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 3 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Bam Adebayo
Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 3 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Tyler Herro
Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 3 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Tyler Herro
Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 3 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Bam Adebayo
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 3 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Tyler Herro
Where money is tied up
Cap position and salary allocation — shown beside the basketball picture, never blended into it.Most salary is mapped to creation; the highest-need area is rim protection. Salary-to-function mapping covers 76% of charges.
Exact figures
Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence.
What the evidence cannot answer
Deliberate abstentions — where the database refuses a conclusion rather than guessing.- Point-of-attack defense proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
- Screening: Basketball conclusion withheld
- Switch coverage proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
Exact transaction legality: Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence
Team-season situation report. Structural basketball quality, recent availability, player dependence, replacement lineups, and financial position remain separate. No acquisition recommendation, transaction grade, coaching grade, outcome claim, or causal value is inferred.