Miami Heat
2025-26What are the Miami Heat in 2025-26, and what needs front-office attention?
MIA 2025-26: the clearest roster problems were Rim protection. The strongest covered areas were Creation, Passing connectivity, Interior finishing. The main rotation-player dependency cases were Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell. Structural basketball need, injuries, replacement lineups, and financial constraints are reported separately.
What can be trusted
Supported strengths — production, who carries it, and what money is already committed.Full reading
MIA 2025-26 Creation: this was a team strength; production ranked at the 91.7 league percentile. Jaime Jaquez Jr. supplied 22.0% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Availability created or worsened the issue in isolated recent games. The team already committed substantial or redundant cap resources here.
Full reading
MIA 2025-26 Passing connectivity: this was a team strength; production ranked at the 91.7 league percentile. Davion Mitchell supplied 22.3% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Availability created or worsened the issue in isolated recent games. The team already committed substantial or redundant cap resources here.
Full reading
MIA 2025-26 Interior finishing: this was a team strength; production ranked at the 87.5 league percentile. Bam Adebayo supplied 19.7% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Recent availability did not create a repeated additional problem. The team already committed substantial or redundant cap resources here.
What needs attention
The clearest roster problems the evidence supports.Full reading
MIA 2025-26 Rim protection: this was a real roster weakness; production ranked at the 12.5 league percentile. Kel'el Ware supplied 29.8% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences made the problem worse in 5 of the final 10 covered games. The cap allocation to this structural need was comparatively low.
Every covered basketball function (11)
| Function | Reading | League percentile | Largest contributor | Recent availability | Salary commitment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creation | SupportedTeam strength | 92nd percentile | Jaime Jaquez Jr. · 22.0% | Isolated availability problem | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Defensive event creation | SupportedMiddle of the league | 46th percentile | Andrew Wiggins · 20.6% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
| Interior finishing | SupportedTeam strength | 88th percentile | Bam Adebayo · 19.7% | No repeated availability problem | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Passing connectivity | SupportedTeam strength | 92nd percentile | Davion Mitchell · 22.3% | Isolated availability problem | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Point-of-attack defense proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Norman Powell | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
| Rebounding | SupportedMiddle-tier area with one-player risk | 58th percentile | Bam Adebayo · 40.9% | Isolated availability problem | Cost concentrated in one provider |
| Rim pressure | SupportedTeam strength | 79th percentile | Bam Adebayo · 23.7% | No repeated availability problem | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Rim protection | SupportedStructural team problem | 13th percentile | Kel'el Ware · 29.8% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Underfunded structural need |
| Screening | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Norman Powell | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
| Shooting and spacing | SupportedTeam strength | 79th percentile | Andrew Wiggins · 26.2% | Isolated availability problem | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Switch coverage proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Norman Powell | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
Who the team depends on
What disappears when a player is removed — and whether an observed replacement five exists.
MIA did not have strong functional backup for Andrew Wiggins in shooting; removing him cost about 26.1% of the team's production in that area. The next observed option was Davion Mitchell.
Replacement evidence
Bam Adebayo · Dru Smith · Nikola Jovic · Jaime Jaquez Jr. · Simone Fontecchio
shrunk net 7.654 over 160 possessions — small sample
on floor 4,119 possessions · off floor 3,635 possessions
MIA lineups performed 8.9 points per 100 possessions better with Bam Adebayo than without him. The best supported alternative was [Andrew Wiggins, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware] over 164 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Andrew Wiggins · Norman Powell · Davion Mitchell · Jaime Jaquez Jr. · Kel'el Ware
shrunk net 2.635 over 164 possessions — small sample
on floor 4,575 possessions · off floor 3,179 possessions
MIA lineups performed 5.3 points per 100 possessions better with Davion Mitchell than without him. The best supported alternative was [Bam Adebayo, Dru Smith, Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Simone Fontecchio] over 160 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Bam Adebayo · Dru Smith · Nikola Jovic · Jaime Jaquez Jr. · Simone Fontecchio
shrunk net 7.654 over 160 possessions — small sample
on floor 3,975 possessions · off floor 3,779 possessions
Function loss, lineup performance, and replacement-lineup evidence remain separate; none is causal player value.
What injuries change
Recent absences and the basketball needs they created or worsened.Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 8 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Dru Smith
Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 5 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Nikola Jovic
Where money is tied up
Cap position and salary allocation — shown beside the basketball picture, never blended into it.Most salary is mapped to interior finishing; the highest-need area is defensive event creation. Salary-to-function mapping covers 100% of charges.
Exact figures
Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence.
What the evidence cannot answer
Deliberate abstentions — where the database refuses a conclusion rather than guessing.- Point-of-attack defense proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
- Screening: Basketball conclusion withheld
- Switch coverage proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
Exact transaction legality: Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence
Team-season situation report. Structural basketball quality, recent availability, player dependence, replacement lineups, and financial position remain separate. No acquisition recommendation, transaction grade, coaching grade, outcome claim, or causal value is inferred.