Houston Rockets
2017-18What were the Houston Rockets in 2017-18, and what needed front-office attention?
HOU 2017-18: the clearest roster problems were Creation, Rim protection, Passing connectivity. The strongest covered areas were Defensive event creation, Shooting and spacing. The main rotation-player dependency cases were Chris Paul, James Harden, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon, Nene Hilario. Structural basketball need, injuries, replacement lineups, and financial constraints are reported separately.
What can be trusted
Supported strengths — production, who carries it, and what money is already committed.Full reading
HOU 2017-18 Defensive event creation: this was a team strength; production ranked at the 96.3 league percentile. James Harden supplied 26.5% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. No governed recent game-level availability layer exists for this season. The team already committed substantial or redundant cap resources here.
Full reading
HOU 2017-18 Shooting and spacing: this was a team strength; production ranked at the 85.2 league percentile. James Harden supplied 20.1% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. No governed recent game-level availability layer exists for this season. The team already committed substantial or redundant cap resources here.
What needs attention
The clearest roster problems the evidence supports.Full reading
HOU 2017-18 Creation: this was one of the team's clearest roster problems; production ranked at the 11.1 league percentile. James Harden supplied 50.4% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. No governed recent game-level availability layer exists for this season. The team already committed substantial or redundant cap resources here.
Full reading
HOU 2017-18 Rim protection: this was one of the team's clearest roster problems; production ranked at the 11.1 league percentile. Clint Capela supplied 41.7% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. No governed recent game-level availability layer exists for this season. The cap allocation to this critical need was comparatively low.
Full reading
HOU 2017-18 Passing connectivity: this was one of the team's clearest roster problems; production ranked at the 22.2 league percentile. James Harden supplied 47.6% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. No governed recent game-level availability layer exists for this season. The team already committed substantial or redundant cap resources here.
Every covered basketball function (11)
| Function | Reading | League percentile | Largest contributor | Recent availability | Salary commitment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creation | SupportedCritical team problem | 11th percentile | James Harden · 50.4% | No recent availability layer for this season | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Defensive event creation | SupportedTeam strength | 96th percentile | James Harden · 26.5% | No recent availability layer for this season | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Interior finishing | SupportedStructural team problem | 11th percentile | Clint Capela · 37.5% | No recent availability layer for this season | Underfunded structural need |
| Passing connectivity | SupportedCritical team problem | 22nd percentile | James Harden · 47.6% | No recent availability layer for this season | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Point-of-attack defense proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Chris Paul | No recent availability layer for this season | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
| Rebounding | SupportedMiddle of the league | 67th percentile | Clint Capela · 38.6% | No recent availability layer for this season | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Rim pressure | SupportedMiddle of the league | 56th percentile | James Harden · 29.5% | No recent availability layer for this season | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Rim protection | SupportedCritical team problem | 11th percentile | Clint Capela · 41.7% | No recent availability layer for this season | Comparatively little salary committed to a critical need |
| Screening | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Chris Paul | No recent availability layer for this season | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
| Shooting and spacing | SupportedTeam strength | 85th percentile | James Harden · 20.1% | No recent availability layer for this season | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Switch coverage proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Chris Paul | No recent availability layer for this season | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
Who the team depends on
What disappears when a player is removed — and whether an observed replacement five exists.
HOU was highly dependent on Chris Paul. Removing him cost about 39.1% of passing production, and lineups with him performed 8.1 points per 100 possessions better than lineups without him. The best supported replacement group was [Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, James Harden, Clint Capela] over 412 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Trevor Ariza · Eric Gordon · Ryan Anderson · James Harden · Clint Capela
shrunk net 10.099 over 412 possessions
on floor 4,348 possessions · off floor 4,335 possessions
HOU lineups performed 4.9 points per 100 possessions better with James Harden than without him. The best supported alternative was [Trevor Ariza, Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela] over 201 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Trevor Ariza · Chris Paul · Eric Gordon · Ryan Anderson · Clint Capela
shrunk net 2.515 over 201 possessions — small sample
on floor 5,723 possessions · off floor 2,923 possessions
HOU lineups performed 7.2 points per 100 possessions better with P.J. Tucker than without him. The best supported alternative was [Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, James Harden, Clint Capela] over 412 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Trevor Ariza · Eric Gordon · Ryan Anderson · James Harden · Clint Capela
shrunk net 10.099 over 412 possessions
on floor 5,139 possessions · off floor 3,551 possessions
HOU lineups performed 4.8 points per 100 possessions better with Eric Gordon than without him. The best supported alternative was [Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker, Luc Mbah a Moute, James Harden, Clint Capela] over 237 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Chris Paul · P.J. Tucker · Luc Mbah a Moute · James Harden · Clint Capela
shrunk net 7.979 over 237 possessions — small sample
on floor 4,936 possessions · off floor 3,749 possessions
HOU lineups performed 8.1 points per 100 possessions better with Nene Hilario than without him. The best supported alternative was [Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, James Harden, Clint Capela] over 412 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Trevor Ariza · Eric Gordon · Ryan Anderson · James Harden · Clint Capela
shrunk net 10.099 over 412 possessions
on floor 1,586 possessions · off floor 7,104 possessions
Function loss, lineup performance, and replacement-lineup evidence remain separate; none is causal player value.
What injuries change
Recent absences and the basketball needs they created or worsened.No governed recent game-level availability layer exists for this season.
Where money is tied up
Cap position and salary allocation — shown beside the basketball picture, never blended into it.Most salary is mapped to shooting and spacing; the highest-need area is interior finishing. Salary-to-function mapping covers 97% of charges.
Exact figures
Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence.
What the evidence cannot answer
Deliberate abstentions — where the database refuses a conclusion rather than guessing.- Point-of-attack defense proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
- Screening: Basketball conclusion withheld
- Switch coverage proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
Exact transaction legality: Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence
Team-season situation report. Structural basketball quality, recent availability, player dependence, replacement lineups, and financial position remain separate. No acquisition recommendation, transaction grade, coaching grade, outcome claim, or causal value is inferred.