Houston Rockets
2023-24What were the Houston Rockets in 2023-24, and what needed front-office attention?
HOU 2023-24: the clearest roster problems were Shooting and spacing, Passing connectivity. The strongest covered areas were Rim protection, Screening. The main rotation-player dependency cases were Aaron Holiday, Jae'Sean Tate, Jock Landale, Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson. Structural basketball need, injuries, replacement lineups, and financial constraints are reported separately.
What can be trusted
Supported strengths — production, who carries it, and what money is already committed.Full reading
HOU 2023-24 Rim protection: this was a team strength; production ranked at the 82.6 league percentile. Jabari Smith Jr. supplied 26.8% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences created a shortage in 7 of the final 10 covered games. The team already committed substantial or redundant cap resources here.
Full reading
HOU 2023-24 Screening: this was a team strength; production ranked at the 75.0 league percentile. Alperen Sengun supplied 37.9% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences created a shortage in 10 of the final 10 covered games. The team already committed substantial or redundant cap resources here.
What needs attention
The clearest roster problems the evidence supports.Full reading
HOU 2023-24 Shooting and spacing: this was one of the team's clearest roster problems; production ranked at the 21.7 league percentile. Fred VanVleet supplied 40.0% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Availability created or worsened the issue in isolated recent games. The cap allocation to this critical need was comparatively low.
Full reading
HOU 2023-24 Passing connectivity: this was a real roster weakness; production ranked at the 17.4 league percentile. Fred VanVleet supplied 35.1% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences made the problem worse in 10 of the final 10 covered games. The cap allocation to this structural need was comparatively low.
Every covered basketball function (11)
| Function | Reading | League percentile | Largest contributor | Recent availability | Salary commitment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creation | SupportedMiddle of the league | 26th percentile | Fred VanVleet · 30.5% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
| Defensive event creation | SupportedMiddle of the league | 74th percentile | Fred VanVleet · 28.3% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Interior finishing | SupportedMiddle of the league | 70th percentile | Jabari Smith Jr. · 20.5% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Passing connectivity | SupportedStructural team problem | 17th percentile | Fred VanVleet · 35.1% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Underfunded structural need |
| Point-of-attack defense proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Jalen Green | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
| Rebounding | SupportedMiddle of the league | 74th percentile | Jabari Smith Jr. · 28.6% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
| Rim pressure | SupportedMiddle of the league | 61st percentile | Alperen Sengun · 23.5% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
| Rim protection | SupportedTeam strength | 83rd percentile | Jabari Smith Jr. · 26.8% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Screening | SupportedTeam strength | 75th percentile | Alperen Sengun · 37.9% | Absences repeatedly created a problem | Heavy or redundant salary already committed here |
| Shooting and spacing | SupportedCritical team problem | 22nd percentile | Fred VanVleet · 40.0% | Isolated availability problem | Comparatively little salary committed to a critical need |
| Switch coverage proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Jalen Green | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Balanced or context-dependent salary commitment |
Who the team depends on
What disappears when a player is removed — and whether an observed replacement five exists.HOU lineups performed 3.4 points per 100 possessions better with Aaron Holiday than without him. The best supported alternative was [Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson] over 330 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Fred VanVleet · Dillon Brooks · Jalen Green · Jabari Smith Jr. · Amen Thompson
shrunk net 1.156 over 330 possessions
on floor 2,263 possessions · off floor 4,952 possessions
HOU lineups performed 4.3 points per 100 possessions better with Jae'Sean Tate than without him. The best supported alternative was [Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson] over 330 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Fred VanVleet · Dillon Brooks · Jalen Green · Jabari Smith Jr. · Amen Thompson
shrunk net 1.156 over 330 possessions
on floor 1,872 possessions · off floor 5,330 possessions
HOU lineups performed 6.9 points per 100 possessions better with Jock Landale than without him. The best supported alternative was [Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson] over 330 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Fred VanVleet · Dillon Brooks · Jalen Green · Jabari Smith Jr. · Amen Thompson
shrunk net 1.156 over 330 possessions
on floor 1,361 possessions · off floor 5,854 possessions
HOU had an observed replacement lineup for Dillon Brooks, but it came with a performance cost. The supported alternative was [Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Jae'Sean Tate, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.] at -3.5 adjusted net points per 100 possessions over 320 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Fred VanVleet · Jalen Green · Jae'Sean Tate · Alperen Sengun · Jabari Smith Jr.
shrunk net -3.457 over 320 possessions
on floor 4,069 possessions · off floor 3,142 possessions
HOU had an observed replacement lineup for Amen Thompson, but it came with a performance cost. The supported alternative was [Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.] at -0.3 adjusted net points per 100 possessions over 1439 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Fred VanVleet · Dillon Brooks · Jalen Green · Alperen Sengun · Jabari Smith Jr.
shrunk net -0.275 over 1,439 possessions
on floor 2,519 possessions · off floor 4,660 possessions
Function loss, lineup performance, and replacement-lineup evidence remain separate; none is causal player value.
What injuries change
Recent absences and the basketball needs they created or worsened.Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 10 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Fred VanVleet
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 10 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Fred VanVleet
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 10 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Dillon Brooks
Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 10 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Fred VanVleet
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 10 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Amen Thompson
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 10 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Alperen Sengun
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 10 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Alperen Sengun
Absences repeatedly created a problem
created in 7 · strength at risk in 3 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Alperen Sengun
Where money is tied up
Cap position and salary allocation — shown beside the basketball picture, never blended into it.Most salary is mapped to interior finishing; the highest-need area is shooting and spacing. Salary-to-function mapping covers 90% of charges.
Exact figures
Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence.
What the evidence cannot answer
Deliberate abstentions — where the database refuses a conclusion rather than guessing.- Point-of-attack defense proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
- Switch coverage proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
Exact transaction legality: Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence
Team-season situation report. Structural basketball quality, recent availability, player dependence, replacement lineups, and financial position remain separate. No acquisition recommendation, transaction grade, coaching grade, outcome claim, or causal value is inferred.