Houston Rockets
2022-23What were the Houston Rockets in 2022-23, and what needed front-office attention?
HOU 2022-23: the clearest roster problems were Shooting and spacing, Passing connectivity, Creation. The strongest covered areas were Rebounding. The main rotation-player dependency cases were Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Kevin Porter Jr., Kenyon Martin Jr.. Structural basketball need, injuries, replacement lineups, and financial constraints are reported separately.
What can be trusted
Supported strengths — production, who carries it, and what money is already committed.Full reading
HOU 2022-23 Rebounding: this was a team strength; production ranked at the 100.0 league percentile. Kenyon Martin Jr. supplied 25.0% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Recent availability did not create a repeated additional problem. Function-level salary allocation was incomplete and is withheld.
What needs attention
The clearest roster problems the evidence supports.Full reading
HOU 2022-23 Shooting and spacing: this was one of the team's clearest roster problems; production ranked at the 4.3 league percentile. Kevin Porter Jr. supplied 45.7% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Availability created or worsened the issue in isolated recent games. Function-level salary allocation was incomplete and is withheld.
Full reading
HOU 2022-23 Passing connectivity: this was a real roster weakness; production ranked at the 4.3 league percentile. Alperen Sengun supplied 34.2% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences made the problem worse in 10 of the final 10 covered games. Function-level salary allocation was incomplete and is withheld.
Full reading
HOU 2022-23 Creation: this was a real roster weakness; production ranked at the 17.4 league percentile. Kevin Porter Jr. supplied 26.9% of the team's above-replacement production in this area. Absences made the problem worse in 10 of the final 10 covered games. Function-level salary allocation was incomplete and is withheld.
Every covered basketball function (11)
| Function | Reading | League percentile | Largest contributor | Recent availability | Salary commitment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creation | SupportedStructural team problem | 17th percentile | Kevin Porter Jr. · 26.9% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Defensive event creation | SupportedMiddle of the league | 57th percentile | Tari Eason · 27.2% | Isolated availability problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Interior finishing | SupportedMiddle of the league | 26th percentile | Jabari Smith Jr. · 24.4% | Isolated availability problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Passing connectivity | SupportedStructural team problem | 4th percentile | Alperen Sengun · 34.2% | Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Point-of-attack defense proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Alperen Sengun | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Rebounding | SupportedTeam strength | 100th percentile | Kenyon Martin Jr. · 25.0% | No repeated availability problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Rim pressure | SupportedMiddle of the league | 74th percentile | Kenyon Martin Jr. · 22.7% | Isolated availability problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Rim protection | SupportedMiddle of the league | 35th percentile | Alperen Sengun · 31.0% | No repeated availability problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Screening | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Kenyon Martin Jr. | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Shooting and spacing | SupportedCritical team problem | 4th percentile | Kevin Porter Jr. · 45.7% | Isolated availability problem | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
| Switch coverage proxy | WithheldBasketball conclusion withheld | — | Alperen Sengun | Recent availability conclusion withheld | Salary-to-function mapping withheld — coverage too low |
Who the team depends on
What disappears when a player is removed — and whether an observed replacement five exists.
HOU was highly dependent on Tari Eason. Removing him cost about 27.2% of event creation production, and lineups with him performed 5.6 points per 100 possessions better than lineups without him. The best supported replacement group was [Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Kenyon Martin Jr., Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.] over 829 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Kevin Porter Jr. · Jalen Green · Kenyon Martin Jr. · Alperen Sengun · Jabari Smith Jr.
shrunk net -6.68 over 829 possessions
on floor 3,154 possessions · off floor 4,045 possessions
HOU did not have strong functional backup for Jabari Smith Jr. in rim protection; removing him cost about 29.0% of the team's production in that area. The next observed option was Alperen Sengun.
Replacement evidence
Kevin Porter Jr. · Jalen Green · Kenyon Martin Jr. · Usman Garuba · Tari Eason
shrunk net -2.535 over 165 possessions — small sample
on floor 4,510 possessions · off floor 2,689 possessions
HOU did not have strong functional backup for Alperen Sengun in rim protection; removing him cost about 31.0% of the team's production in that area. The next observed option was Jabari Smith Jr..
Replacement evidence
Kevin Porter Jr. · Jalen Green · Kenyon Martin Jr. · Usman Garuba · Tari Eason
shrunk net -2.535 over 165 possessions — small sample
on floor 3,988 possessions · off floor 3,211 possessions
HOU did not have strong functional backup for Kevin Porter Jr. in creation; removing him cost about 26.9% of the team's production in that area. The next observed option was Alperen Sengun.
Replacement evidence
Eric Gordon · Jalen Green · Kenyon Martin Jr. · Alperen Sengun · Jabari Smith Jr.
shrunk net -6.94 over 237 possessions — small sample
on floor 3,718 possessions · off floor 3,481 possessions
HOU had an observed replacement lineup for Kenyon Martin Jr., but it came with a performance cost. The supported alternative was [Eric Gordon, Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.] at -7.1 adjusted net points per 100 possessions over 822 possessions.
Replacement evidence
Eric Gordon · Kevin Porter Jr. · Jalen Green · Alperen Sengun · Jabari Smith Jr.
shrunk net -7.059 over 822 possessions
on floor 4,226 possessions · off floor 2,973 possessions
Function loss, lineup performance, and replacement-lineup evidence remain separate; none is causal player value.
What injuries change
Recent absences and the basketball needs they created or worsened.Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 10 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Kevin Porter Jr.
Absences repeatedly worsened an existing problem
worsened in 10 of the final 10 covered games — mainly Kevin Porter Jr.
Where money is tied up
Cap position and salary allocation — shown beside the basketball picture, never blended into it.Salary-to-function mapping covers only 38% of charges — no function-level salary conclusion is drawn.
Exact figures
Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence.
What the evidence cannot answer
Deliberate abstentions — where the database refuses a conclusion rather than guessing.- Point-of-attack defense proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
- Screening: Basketball conclusion withheld
- Switch coverage proxy: Basketball conclusion withheld
Exact transaction legality: Exact transaction legality withheld — no exception-usage, cap-hold, and transaction ledger evidence
Team-season situation report. Structural basketball quality, recent availability, player dependence, replacement lineups, and financial position remain separate. No acquisition recommendation, transaction grade, coaching grade, outcome claim, or causal value is inferred.